Probability models > Non-binomial probabilities
1234Non-binomial probabilities

Solutions to the exercises

Exercise 1
a

5 12 4 11 7 10 6 9 6 0 . 4242

b

1 - ( 8 12 7 11 6 10 5 9 + 4 12 8 11 7 10 6 9 4 ) 0 . 4061

c

9 12 8 11 7 10 6 9 0 . 2545

d

4 5 12 = 1 2 3

Exercise 2
a

A can will not appear twice in the same sample. It therefore is sampling without replacement.

b

100 1000 99 999 98 998 900 997 899 996 898 995 897 994 896 993 ( 8 3 ) 0.0326

c

P ( B = 3 | n = 8 and p = 0 . 10 ) 0 . 0331 . The difference is is 0.0005, or 0.05%.

d

The difference is very small because you are taking a very small sample (8 cans) out of a large population (1000 cans).

e

P ( B 3 | n = 8 and p = 0 . 10 ) 0 . 9950

Exercise 3
a

4 0 . 4 = 1 . 6

b

8 20 7 19 6 18 12 17 4 0 . 1387

c

P ( X = 3 | n = 4 and p = 0 . 40 ) 0 . 1536 . This probability differs from the actual chance by 0.0149 , which is quite a large difference.

d

40 100 39 99 38 98 60 97 4 0 . 1512

e

P ( X = 3 | n = 4 and p = 0 . 40 ) 0 . 1536 . The difference is now much smaller. The larger the sampling population, the smaller the difference.

Exercise 4
a

5 30 25 29 24 28 23 27 4 0 . 4196

b

1 - ( 25 30 24 29 23 28 22 27 + 5 30 25 29 24 28 23 27 4 ) 0 . 3872

c

5 30 4 29 3 28 25 27 4 0 . 0091

Exercise 5

P ( X 15 | n = 20 and p = 0 . 90 ) 0 . 0432

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